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Polymarket’s contract on whether Anthropic will complete an IPO by December 31, 2026 was priced at 75.0%, down 3.5 probability points, with $1.4M traded, according to the supplied market summary published Oct 25, 2026 · 8:39 AM ET.
The price still favors an IPO before the deadline, despite the decline. The supplied material does not identify a company announcement or other development explaining the move.
Reading the repricing
According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers tracker measures changes over 24 hours in probability points, rather than relative percentages. It draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes.
The tracker ranks markets by the size of their probability changes, not by trading volume. The $1.4M figure provides activity context, but the supplied summary does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book liquidity.
Limits of the snapshot
The source page records a venue-data reading of 25 Oct 2026, 17:12 UTC, later than the supplied summary’s publication time. Its provided text describes the tracker’s methodology but does not display the Anthropic contract’s individual entry, so it does not independently confirm the quoted price at that later reading.
No IPO timetable, filing details or contract-resolution terms are included. The available evidence therefore supports a report of market repricing, rather than a conclusion about a change in Anthropic’s listing plans.
What it means for prediction markets
The deadline matters: The contract concerns an IPO by December 31, 2026, not whether Anthropic will eventually go public.
Direction and level differ: A 3.5-point decline signals reduced market-implied confidence, while the 75.0% price still favors the outcome.
Activity is not liquidity: The reported $1.4M traded does not establish how much buying or selling would move the price.
The catalyst remains unverified: The supplied material does not connect the decline to a specific corporate development.