Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 priced at 55.5% on Polymarket, up 2.0 points, on $441K traded
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used today, taken by website-only batches, or on the banned list…
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Polymarket priced Anthropic’s chance of having the best AI model at the end of December 2026 at 55.5%, up 2.0 percentage points, with $441K traded, in the supplied market snapshot published Oct 28, 2026, at 7:24 AM ET.
The price puts the outcome above even odds, but the supplied material does not identify a fresh development behind the increase. The accompanying news-search summary reported no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes.
A price move without a clear catalyst
That search returned only material already used today, assigned to website-only batches, or included on a banned list. This limits the available explanation for the move; it does not establish that no relevant news occurred.
According to predictionbubbles.net, its technology-market board reports probability changes over the last 24 hours and refreshes data every 15 minutes. The 2.0-point increase should therefore be distinguished from the much shorter news-search window.
What the snapshot establishes
PredictionBubbles says it aggregates prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking 60 open technology markets: 13 on Kalshi and 47 on Polymarket. It reports total traded volume separately from probability movement, so the $441K figure should not be read as the amount traded during this increase.
The supplied material does not include the Anthropic contract’s detailed resolution criteria or explain how “best” will be determined. According to predictionbubbles.net, related questions across venues can have different wording and settlement rules, making those details important when interpreting or comparing prices.
What it means for prediction markets
The market favors Anthropic, but not decisively: 55.5% is a market-implied probability, not confirmation of a future model ranking.
The catalyst remains unverified: the supplied news search does not support attributing the 2.0-point rise to a new announcement.
Volume and timing require care: $441K represents total traded volume, while the board’s movement measure covers 24 hours.
Resolution criteria matter: without the contract’s definition of “best,” the price cannot be mapped confidently to a particular performance test.