Aaron Ashby win Pro Baseball Championship Series MVP priced at 11.0% on Kalshi, up 9.1 points, on $718K traded

Aaron Ashby’s Kalshi contract for winning Pro Baseball Championship Series MVP was priced at 11.0%, up 9.1 percentage points over 24 hours, with $718K traded, according to the supplied market snapshot. PredictionBubbles identified the contract as a leading upward sports move.

A sharp repricing, with timing caveats

The summary places the observation at Oct. 28, 05:14 UTC. The supplied PredictionBubbles page carries a later refresh timestamp of 28 Oct 2026, 05:45 UTC and names Ashby’s MVP contract as the biggest sports mover, but its extracted text does not repeat the contract’s price, change or volume.

Those timestamps distinguish the headline figures from the later board reading. The supplied material does not identify a game result, player performance or other development behind the move, so it establishes a repricing rather than its cause.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, the board draws prices from Kalshi and Polymarket every 15 minutes and ranks contracts by their absolute probability-point change over 24 hours. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine the ranking.

The supplied page covers 2,029 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Its table displays the top 150 of 491 markets moving at least one probability point. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify, making Ashby’s placement a comparison within that screened universe rather than across every sports contract.

What it means for prediction markets

• The move is substantial, but the outcome remains priced as unlikely. An increase of 9.1 percentage points brings the contract to 11.0%; it does not make Ashby the expected winner.
• Volume and liquidity are different measures. The reported $718K traded adds activity context, but the supplied text does not establish order-book depth or explain what drove the price change.
• Snapshot timing matters. The summary’s 05:14 UTC observation and the page’s 05:45 UTC refresh should not be treated as interchangeable confirmation of the same figures.