69.2% of Polymarket retail accounts are losing money

Retail losses alongside record volume

A Galaxy Research analysis found that 69.2% of 2.9M human retail accounts on Polymarket ended below break-even, according to a summary published by zubiqo.com.

The finding was cited alongside a Q3 volume record, putting retail account outcomes next to a measure of market activity. The available summary does not specify the scope or size of that volume record.

The account-level result shows that losses were widespread within the group analyzed. It does not establish how much the typical losing account lost or how losses were distributed among those accounts.

The full source text was unavailable. The supplied summary does not explain the analysis period or how Galaxy Research calculated break-even, limiting what can be concluded about the reported results.

What it means for prediction markets

• Volume and profitability are different measures. A record in trading activity does not, by itself, demonstrate profitable outcomes for retail participants.
• The denominator matters. The 69.2% figure applies to the 2.9M human retail accounts analyzed—not necessarily to unique traders or every Polymarket participant.
• Methodology remains important. Without the calculation details and measurement period, the figure offers a limited basis for comparisons across platforms or over time.