49ers surge to Super Bowl LXI favourites at 14%, up 5 points

San Francisco moves into first

The San Francisco 49ers lead the Super Bowl LXI prediction-market snapshot at 14%, according to DeFi Rate’s Oct. 12 summary. Their probability rose 5 percentage points over 7 days.

The summary lists San Francisco at 14c on Kalshi and 13.3c on Polymarket. Both venue prices sit close to the reported 14% headline probability.

The 49ers are ahead of the Rams, whom the available summary lists at 12%. That puts the gap between the two teams at 2 percentage points on the figures provided.

The update was published Oct. 12, 2026, at 1:54 AM ET. The full source text was unavailable, and the summary is truncated, leaving no further context for the Rams figure or explanation for San Francisco’s rise.

What it means for prediction markets

• A lead, not a majority expectation: San Francisco ranks first in the snapshot, but its reported probability is still only 14%.
• A notable weekly shift: The 5-percentage-point increase over 7 days shows a repricing toward the 49ers; the available material does not identify the catalyst.
• Venue prices differ: Kalshi’s 14c and Polymarket’s 13.3c readings provide distinct reference points rather than a single identical market price.