$3M lobbying push goes public

Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets have spent at least $3 million in 2026 on lobbying and campaign contributions at the state and federal levels, according to an OpenSecrets report covered by Stateline and republished by usa-today-news.com. The spending comes amid a dispute over whether prediction markets fall exclusively under federal financial regulation or must also comply with state gambling rules.

Kalshi targets state political networks

Kalshi, described in the reporting as the largest prediction-market platform by a wide margin, has directed substantial contributions toward organizations supporting governors and attorneys general. OpenSecrets found that it gave more than $300,000 combined to the Republican Attorneys General Association and the Democratic Attorneys General Association. In the first half of 2026, it also contributed $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association.

The company has retained at least one lobbyist in 41 states, with particular attention to California and New York. Its lobbying footprint includes every state that has introduced legislation specifically addressing prediction markets, according to the analysis. Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever told OpenSecrets that the company supports candidates from both parties.

Federal lobbying remains another substantial expense. Kalshi alone spent nearly $1 million during the first half of 2026, targeting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the White House, the Securities & Exchange Commission and both chambers of Congress.

A fight over regulatory authority

Platforms argue that their contracts belong in the same regulatory category as commodity-market products rather than sportsbook wagers. State lawmakers from both parties counter that prediction markets bypass gambling restrictions, taxes and consumer safeguards, particularly through sports contracts. The conflict has produced regulatory action, legislation and lawsuits involving states, platforms and the Trump administration, which has sought to limit state oversight.

During the summer, Kalshi Head of Corporate Development Sara Slane told lawmakers that the company wanted stronger relationships with states while maintaining that its CFTC regulation excluded state oversight. The five-member CFTC currently has four vacancies and has sued nine states that tried to regulate the industry. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, holds financial stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket, according to the reporting.

Many observers expect the U.S. Supreme Court eventually to determine the states’ regulatory role. Brad Lipton, director of the Roosevelt Institute’s corporate power and financial regulation program, told OpenSecrets that the dispute bears directly on the industry’s viability. He questioned whether its business model could compete while complying with state law and characterized the lobbying campaign as an attempt to use political influence to compensate for weaknesses in its legal position.

What it means for prediction markets

• Jurisdiction remains the central uncertainty. The dispute concerns whether federal derivatives oversight displaces state gambling regulation, including for sports contracts.
• Political spending is not a legal outcome. The reported $3 million minimum establishes the scale of the influence campaign, not whether platforms will prevail in court or legislatures.
• State and federal developments both matter. Kalshi’s presence in 41 states and its federal lobbying show that the contest is proceeding across multiple levels of government.
• Supreme Court involvement remains an expectation. The reporting describes observers anticipating an eventual ruling, rather than an established resolution of the dispute.