2026 be the second-hottest year on record priced at 13.5% on Polymarket, down 1.5 points, on $475K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether 2026 will be the second-hottest year on record was priced at 13.5%, down 1.5 percentage points, with $475K traded, in the Oct 24, 2026 · 11:39 AM ET snapshot.

The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It provides no fresh reporting that explains the temperature contract’s decline.

Reading the climate-market data

According to predictionbubbles.net, its climate dashboard reports market-implied probabilities, changes over the preceding 24 hours and total traded volume. Its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.

PredictionBubbles says the climate page currently tracks 21 markets, all on Polymarket. Although its broader data pipeline includes both Polymarket and Kalshi, that does not mean each climate question is available on both platforms.

Price versus measurement

According to predictionbubbles.net, climate contracts cover measurable outcomes such as temperature records, storm counts and thresholds reached by specified dates. Settlement depends on published measurements, while prices can change as forecasts and observations emerge.

The supplied material does not identify the temperature contract’s specific dataset, resolution deadline or detailed settlement rules. The 13.5% reading therefore describes traders’ pricing of the stated outcome—not an independently established climate forecast.

What it means for prediction markets

• The move is narrower than a broad climate call: A decline in the probability of second place does not, by itself, show which alternative annual temperature ranking traders now favor.
• Volume and price answer different questions: The $475K figure is total traded volume, not evidence of how much trading caused the latest 1.5-point decline.
• Timing and rules matter: A dashboard refreshed every 15 minutes can differ from the live venue price, and assessing the contract requires its exact settlement criteria.