The Downside Is the Favorite: Bitcoin's November Ladder Leans to $72,500
November opened with Bitcoin's monthly ladder leaning down, not up. Polymarket's market asking what price Bitcoin will hit in November, which closes December 1 at 12:00 AM ET, prices a fall to $72,500 at 47 percent against a rise to $85,000 at 42 percent, on $171K traded in the last 24 hours. The downside leg is the favorite in the market's biggest monthly question.
Kalshi's separate question, how high Bitcoin gets in November, tells the same story in softer form. Traders there price Bitcoin above $82,500 at 57 percent, but above $87,500 at only 26 percent, in a market closing November 30 at 11:59 PM ET. A modest new high for the month is likely, on those prices. A breakout is not.
Ethereum mirrors the lean. Its November hit market, on $61K traded in 24 hours, prices a fall to $2,100 at 57 percent against a rise to $2,500 at 48 percent. On both of the two largest coins, the first big level traders expect to be touched this month is below the current price, not above it.
The near term is less bearish. Kalshi prices Bitcoin at $78,000 or above on November 6 at 5 PM ET at 51 percent, and $78,500 or above at 45 percent, on $76K traded in 24 hours. Its end-of-2026 range market puts the likeliest band at $75,000 to $79,999.99 at 18 percent, just ahead of $80,000 to $84,999.99 at 17 percent.
That caution is trading in size. DeFi Rate counts $164M of crypto contracts traded in 24 hours, and crypto is 12 percent of all prediction-market trading. For November, that money is not chasing a rally. It is pricing a dip first.
Sources: DeFi Rate, Kalshi, Polymarket
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