Half of Google's Midterm Answers Are Now a Market
Ask Google who will win the Senate this November, and there is an even chance a market is part of the answer. A CasinoReviews.net study of 140 Google results pages across 14 US cities found Polymarket or Kalshi on page one for half of everyday forecast searches such as "election forecast" and "midterm polls."
On 112 mobile results pages, 50% showed a betting platform on page one. The platforms appeared in all eight cities tested in states where state law bans betting on elections - Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, Charlotte, Las Vegas and Chicago - even though 24 states ban election betting outright, while federally regulated markets still offer election contracts nationwide.
The split is sharp. Kalshi appeared on all 28 pages for "senate odds" and "midterm odds," but on only 6% of forecast pages - Kalshi owns odds searches, Polymarket owns forecasts, the study found. Searchers treat markets like polls: "Polymarket polls" and "Kalshi polls" rank among the top related searches.
Yet only about 1 in 120 midterm searches uses betting or odds language, and forecast searches without that language outnumber them nearly nine to one. Across 46 states, Google Trends interest in Polymarket and Kalshi, relative to interest in the 2026 elections, showed no consistent difference between ban states and states with no such law.
Researchers checked 10 searches in each of 14 cities on October 15 and 16, 2026, with search volumes from Ahrefs covering 10,092 US keywords containing "midterm elections." Lead researcher Nikoleta Kuncheva put it plainly: most people who search for midterm predictions are not looking to place a bet - they want to know who is going to win.
Sources: CasinoReviews.net, BusinessWire
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