70 Percent for a Sweep: Two Days Out, the Market Picked a Side

Two days before polls open on Tuesday, November 3, the balance-of-power market has stopped hedging. Kalshi put a Democratic sweep of both chambers at about 70 percent on Sunday morning, and Polymarket put it at 72 percent. A year ago that same outcome was priced at one in four, and on Kalshi it was still below 50 percent in early September.

The alternative is now the long shot. Democrats taking the House while Republicans hold the Senate stood at 27 percent on Kalshi and 23 percent on Polymarket. A Republican sweep was priced at 6.7 percent on Kalshi and 5 percent on Polymarket. Republicans control both chambers today, with a 53-47 edge in the Senate and a narrow House majority.

The chamber contracts tell the same story. Kalshi traders put Democratic control of the Senate at roughly 72 percent, up 7 points in the past week, and House control at about 94 percent for Democrats. Traders put $16 million into election markets in the past 24 hours alone, as the final weekend repriced the Senate race by race.

The scale is what makes this cycle different. The balance-of-power question alone has traded 56.2 million contracts, with 44.7 million still open, across a midterm board of 286 tradeable contracts covering all 35 Senate races and 66 competitive House districts. This is no longer a side market watching the election. It is pricing it, contract by contract, into Tuesday night.

Sources: TradingView, DeFi Rate, PredictionMarketsPicks
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