70 Percent, a Record: Two Days Out, the Market Prices a Sweep

Kalshi's balance-of-power contract put the chance of Democrats winning both the House and the Senate at 70 percent on Sunday, an all-time high and up more than nine points in a month. Polymarket priced the same sweep at 72 percent. In early September the Kalshi contract sat below 50 percent.

The alternatives are fading. A split Congress, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans retaining the Senate, priced at 27 percent on Kalshi and 23 percent on Polymarket. A Republican sweep priced at 6 percent on Kalshi and 5 percent on Polymarket.

The chamber math explains the gap. Kalshi put Democratic control of the House at 93.2 percent and the Senate at 71 percent, with Polymarket at 72 percent on the Senate. DeFi Rate put the combined Senate price up six points this week. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats, and the 51st seat runs through Maine, where Troy Jackson priced at 69 percent, up eight points in seven days.

The money and the ballots are moving together. Traders put $17 million into election markets in the past 24 hours, according to DeFi Rate. Of 53.9 million early ballots cast, 46 percent came from Democrats and 35 percent from Republicans. Nate Silver's generic ballot showed Democrats ahead by 9.1 points, 52.4 percent to 43.3 percent.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Two days out, the market is not pricing a close finish for control of Congress. It is pricing a sweep, at a record price, and leaving the split outcome as the only real alternative.

Sources: Kalshi News, DeFi Rate, Seeking Alpha
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