286 Million Contracts: Election Eve Is Now a Trading Day
One day before the November 3 vote, Kalshi alone has traded 286,241,295 contracts across its Senate, House and chamber-control markets. Another 28,054,712 contracts changed hands in the last 24 hours, and 195,407,038 contracts are still open across 100 live races, 285 tradeable contracts, 35 Senate races and 66 competitive House districts.
The money is not spread thin. Traders put $30 million into election markets in the past 24 hours, and politics took 35 of the top 50 markets on the combined board, worth $27 million of its $33 million in 24-hour volume. The single biggest market is the Senate swing-state map: $5.6 million in 24 hours across 128 outcomes, trading at 3.8 times its daily average, with None leading at 32 cents.
The chamber picture is priced, not polled. Democrats are at 72 percent to win the Senate and 94 percent to win the House, and a Democratic sweep trades at 71 cents on Kalshi on $2.0 million in 24 hours. The balance-of-power contract itself has traded 61.0 million contracts, with 48.9 million still open.
The tightest race shows where the doubt remains. In Iowa, Ashley Hinson leads at 53 cents in the highest-volume Senate race the market still cannot call, with 9.7 million contracts traded and 5.5 million open. In Maine, the race for the 51st seat prices Troy Jackson at 73 percent.
Election Eve used to be a night for final polls. Now it has an order book, open interest, and a closing rush that starts before the first precinct opens.
Sources: PredictionMarketsPicks, DeFi Rate
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