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US recession by end of 2026 priced at 7.5 percent on Polymarket against 3.5 percent on Kalshi, PolymarketTrader reports
- US recession by end of 2026 priced at 7.5 percent on Polymarket against 3.5 percent on Kalshi, PolymarketTrader reports — PolymarketTrader reported Polymarket prices Yes on a US recession by the end of 2026 at 7.5 percent against 3.5 percent on Kalshi, a 4.0 point gap checked October 25. The platforms use different resolution rules, with Polymarket also counting an NBER recession call and Kalshi counting only two consecutive negative GDP quarters. (PolymarketTrader)
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