Two Exchanges, One Point Apart: The Rivals Agree
Two rival exchanges, two different trader bases, and almost the same answer. A side-by-side comparison on October 31 matched 10 events listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi, covering 54 outcomes. Across all of them, the average gap was just 1.0 percentage point.
The biggest markets are the tightest. Democrats to win the House are at 94.5 percent on Polymarket and 93.8 percent on Kalshi, a gap of 0.7 points. Democrats to win the Senate are at 71.5 percent against 70.5 percent, a gap of 1.0. A 25-point Fed hike in December is at 70.5 percent against 69.5 percent, also 1.0.
The exceptions prove how narrow the band is. The widest gap in the whole set is Republicans to win the 2028 presidential election, at 34.5 percent on Polymarket and 40.5 percent on Kalshi, 6.0 points apart. U.S. recession by the end of 2026 is next at 6.5 percent against 2.5 percent, and even there the rules differ between the two venues.
In sports the agreement is exact in places. The Buffalo Bills are at 11.5 percent on both exchanges, the Los Angeles Rams at 6.5 percent on both, and Bayern Munich and Arsenal are level on both in the Champions League market.
That is what a maturing market looks like. Different order books, fees and access rules still leave room for a gap, and a gap is not free money. But when two rivals price 54 outcomes within a point on average, the price is no longer one exchange's opinion. It is the consensus.
Sources: PolymarketTrader, DeFi Rate
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