The $65 Billion Month
October was the biggest month prediction markets have ever had — and it was not close.
Kalshi traded approximately $65 billion in October, 10% above its September record. Polymarket US reached $10 billion, up roughly 15% on its previous high. Open interest set records on both platforms: $2.05 billion on Kalshi and $384 million on Polymarket US. A year ago, Kalshi's entire October was about $4.4 billion.
The structure of the market flipped with the scale. Kalshi now accounts for nearly 83% of combined volume across itself and both Polymarket platforms, and U.S.-regulated venues hold 95.6% of the total. The offshore upstart era is over; the volume lives on regulated American exchanges now.
The test comes next week. The midterms end Tuesday, and post-election volume will show whether October was a peak or a plateau — whether $65 billion months are the new baseline or an election-season spike.
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