The $1.5 Billion Election
Four days before Americans vote, prediction markets have already rendered their verdict — and it is not close.
On Polymarket, Democrats are priced at 69% to sweep both chambers of Congress, against just 8% for a Republican sweep. Kalshi's balance-of-power market tells the same story: a Democratic sweep at 68%, with a split Congress — Democratic House, Republican Senate — at 27%.
The House looks settled. Democrats trade at 91–92% on both exchanges to take the chamber. The Senate is the real fight, priced 65–66% Democratic, with Iowa the lone toss-up: Republican Ashley Hinson at 57.5%, Democrat Josh Turek at 42%.
The scale is the story. Kalshi's midterm tracker has passed 243 million contracts traded, election volume across venues is approaching $1.5 billion, and CNN, CBS News, CNBC and Dow Jones have all signed on to carry the odds. The forecast now moves with the markets, not the other way around.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. The markets will be open all night.
Sources: ·
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