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Superforecasters outscored Polymarket on the 2026 Senate races with a Brier score of 0.086 against 0.101, Good Judgment reports
- Superforecasters outscored Polymarket on the 2026 Senate races with a Brier score of 0.086 against 0.101, Good Judgment reports — Good Judgment, in a November 4 analysis, scored Superforecasters and Polymarket prices from November 2 across 16 Senate races, with Superforecasters at a Brier score of 0.086 against 0.101 for Polymarket, where lower is better. The figures assume Mary Peltola wins in Alaska; if Dan Sullivan holds the seat, both scores rise to 0.108 and 0.130 and the gap widens. (Good Judgment)
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