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Study of about one million prediction questions finds Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Metaculus forecasts highly calibrated, Marginal Revolution reports
- Study of about one million prediction questions finds Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Metaculus forecasts highly calibrated, Marginal Revolution reports — Marginal Revolution summarized a new paper evaluating about one million resolved contracts and questions across Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Metaculus across twelve domains. The study found events assigned a probability of p percent occurred approximately p percent of the time, with systematic tendencies toward over- or underestimation in some highly consequential areas. (Marginal Revolution)
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