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Study finds Kalshi S and P 500 prices beat raw VIX benchmarks across 616 trading days
- Study finds Kalshi S and P 500 prices beat raw VIX benchmarks across 616 trading days — A quantitative study scored Kalshi daily S and P 500 ladder prices against VIX-implied probabilities over 616 trading days and found Kalshi beat every raw VIX benchmark by a wide margin. After fitting one volatility-scaling constant on pre-2025 data the two were statistically tied, and trading the gap between them earned nothing after costs. (Medium)
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