Seventy Percent Says the Fed Hikes in December
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, but it was not a quiet hold. The vote was 10-2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both voting for a quarter-point hike right away. Prediction markets read the dissents as a forwarding address: the hike the committee skipped in October is now priced to arrive in December.
As of October 30 at 5:00 PM ET, Kalshi prices a 25-point hike on December 9 at 69%, a hold at 28%, a 50-point hike at about 3% and a cut at 1% — a 72% chance of a hike in total. Polymarket prices the same 25-point hike at 70.5%, and fed funds futures are higher still at 73.3%. DeFi Rate's last trades tell the same story: Kalshi at 68.5 cents with $60K traded in 24 hours, Polymarket at 70.5 cents with $173K traded.
The crowd has earned some trust here. The market favorite has won 15 of 15 Fed decisions since 2025 on Kalshi and Polymarket, and October was graded close: Polymarket closed the hold at 95.5% and Kalshi at 94.5%. December's hike odds first closed above 50% on August 15 and sit at 73% on the latest daily close, even after slipping 3 points this week from 72% to 69% on Kalshi's decision contract.
Beyond December, the path goes quiet. January 27 prices a hike at just 26% to 28% against a 71% hold, and March is a coin flip at 50% hike, 47% hold. Kalshi's dot-plot ladder, which prices the Fed's own year-end 2026 projection, implies a median dot of 4.00% to 4.10% — exactly one more hike, delivered in December and then a pause.
What moves it next is data, starting with payrolls on November 6. The statement lands at 2:00 PM ET on December 9 with a new dot plot attached. Until then, every inflation print is a trade: hot, and 70% becomes 80%; soft, and the two dissenters start to look early rather than right.
#infiniti #infinitimarkets #predictionmarkets #FederalReserve #Kalshi #Polymarket
web: Infiniti.w3ai.io
Infiniti Briefing
https://infiniti.w3ai.io/infiniti-feed
Full attribution
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to the publisher”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.