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Prediction markets priced Lula at about 20 percent before the Brazil runoff he won, with sharps putting true odds at 30 to 40 percent, WEEX reports
- Prediction markets priced Lula at about 20 percent before the Brazil runoff he won, with sharps putting true odds at 30 to 40 percent, WEEX reports — WEEX reported prediction markets priced Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at about 20 percent against about 80 percent for Flavio Bolsonaro before the Brazil runoff Lula ultimately won. Experts cited by WEEX attributed the miss to Brazil banning prediction markets in the country and retail flow diluting sharper money, with a Polymarket whale saying Lula Yes was still tradable at 60 cents at 6:15 PM ET when the result was essentially decided. (WEEX)
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