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Prediction markets price an October 1 government shutdown near 10 to 16 percent as contract rules differ
- Prediction markets price an October 1 government shutdown near 10 to 16 percent as contract rules differ — Noah News reports market pricing for a US government shutdown on October 1, 2026 has fallen from near 35 percent to the mid-teens or lower. It notes Polymarket's shutdown contract traded near 16.5 cents while a broader lapse contract sat near 13.5 cents, and Kalshi uses a narrower rule set, which helps explain why the venues appear to disagree. (Noah News)
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