Prediction Markets Just Out-Earned Crypto at Robinhood
The crossover is now official — and it is in the earnings. Robinhood reported third-quarter results on October 27, and event contracts generated $173 million in revenue, ahead of the $120 million from cryptocurrency trading, for the second straight quarter.
The volume behind it is enormous. Robinhood customers traded a record 16.4 billion event contracts in the quarter, up from 13.6 billion in the second quarter and more than seven times the year-earlier level. Prediction-market revenue rose 11% quarter over quarter, from $156 million, and more than sixfold year over year, inside record total revenue of $1.42 billion.
The mix is changing, too. Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma said non-sports contracts accounted for roughly 30% of prediction-market activity, up from about 15% in the prior quarter. Rothera, the prediction exchange Robinhood runs with Susquehanna, contributed $28 million and passed $100 million in annualized revenue in its first full quarter.
The exchanges supplying the market set their own records in October. Kalshi posted about $65 billion in volume, 10% above its September record, with open interest at a record $2.05 billion, while Polymarket US reached $10 billion, up roughly 15% from its previous monthly high.
Crypto revenue at Robinhood fell 55% from a year earlier. The forecast, it turns out, is now the bigger business.
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