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Prediction markets beat polls on speed but not always on accuracy, election experts say at NEXTPredict panel
- Prediction markets beat polls on speed but not always on accuracy, election experts say at NEXTPredict panel — At the NEXTPredict Summit in New York on Friday, Columbia University professor Rajiv Sethi, Decision Desk HQ analyst Geoffrey Skelley and PredictIt CEO John Phillips, in a panel moderated by Chuck Todd, said prediction markets react to developments faster than polls and models but can react quickly and wrongly, citing the final 2024 Des Moines Register poll in Iowa. Sethi and Phillips chose prediction markets as their single forecasting method for the final week before the midterms, Skelley chose forecasting models, and Phillips said some of PredictIt's most active traders conduct their own private exit polls. (NextPredict)
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