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Prediction market favorites won 74 percent of 33,716 settled questions a day before outcomes, PredictionScout review finds

  • Prediction market favorites won 74 percent of 33,716 settled questions a day before outcomes, PredictionScout review finds — PredictionScout reviewed 33,716 settled Kalshi and Polymarket questions that closed between January 2025 and September 2026 and found the favorite won 74.0 percent of the time one day before the outcome was clear. Kalshi's favorite was correct on all 28 Federal Open Market Committee decisions in the period a day ahead. (Blockonomi)

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