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Pre-election favorites won 479 of 487 resolved midterm races, a 98 percent hit rate, with Polymarket posting slightly better Brier scores than Kalshi on both chambers, RotoWire reports
- Pre-election favorites won 479 of 487 resolved midterm races, a 98 percent hit rate, with Polymarket posting slightly better Brier scores than Kalshi on both chambers, RotoWire reports — Before the first polls closed, Kalshi priced Democrats at 93.3 percent for the House and 75.0 percent for the Senate, against Polymarket at 94.5 percent and 75.5 percent, and Democrats won both chambers. Polymarket's Brier scores were 0.0030 on the House and 0.0600 on the Senate, against Kalshi at 0.0045 and 0.0625. (RotoWire)
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