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Pooled prediction market seat prices imply 239.8 Democratic House seats and a 97.7 percent House majority chance against a 90.9 percent control price, InnovationStrat Wealth reports
- Pooled prediction market seat prices imply 239.8 Democratic House seats and a 97.7 percent House majority chance against a 90.9 percent control price, InnovationStrat Wealth reports — InnovationStrat Wealth reports a pooled analysis of Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt prices from October 21 gave 239.8 expected Democratic House seats, 51.3 Democratic senators and 26.0 Democratic governors. House seat prices implied a 97.7 percent chance of a Democratic majority while the House control contract traded at 90.9 percent, a 6.7 point gap the study said survived every variant it tried. (InnovationStrat Wealth)
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