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Polymarket gave Aleksandar Vucic a 70 percent chance of winning Serbia's prime ministerial race, but he lost after taking 39.2 percent of the vote, InfoBets reports
- Polymarket gave Aleksandar Vucic a 70 percent chance of winning Serbia's prime ministerial race, but he lost after taking 39.2 percent of the vote, InfoBets reports — InfoBets said the platforms' forecasting record is patchy despite their wisdom of the crowds argument, noting both Kalshi and Polymarket also gave Francesca Hong a 95 percent chance in a Wisconsin primary she lost. A study of 2,500 political markets found pricing inconsistent with rational information aggregation. (InfoBets)
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