One Exchange Now Handles Three-Quarters of Everything
Prediction markets traded $121.6 billion in contracts in the last 30 days, and one exchange handled almost all of it. DeFi Rate puts Kalshi at $91.7 billion over Sep. 30 to Oct. 29, a 75.6% share, up 53% on the 30 days before. Polymarket US was a distant second at $14.1 billion and 11.6%, with Polymarket's international exchange at $5.0 billion and 4.1%.
The dollars tell a second story. Those $121.6 billion in contracts were $29.2 billion in dollars actually paid, and $4.2 billion traded in the last 24 hours alone. Oct. 29 printed $4.08 billion across all venues and Oct. 28 printed $4.50 billion, while Sunday, Oct. 25 was the busiest day in the window at $7.14 billion — football weekends still set the calendar.
Sports explain the concentration. Sports took 68% of the dollars paid on single markets, $14.8 billion in 30 days, ahead of crypto at 26% and finance at 3%. The single most-traded market in the last 24 hours was Carolina vs. Green Bay on Kalshi at $40 million, followed by Shelton vs. Kym at $19 million.
The challengers are growing faster, just from far behind. DraftKings Predictions and Novig both rose 115% on the prior 30 days, to $4.1 billion and $3.0 billion, and Underdog Exchange was the fastest grower at 158%. September as a whole traded $79.6 billion, up 56% — the question now is whether anyone closes the gap on the leader, or whether scale itself becomes the moat.
#infiniti #infinitimarkets #predictionmarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #tradingvolume
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