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October Fed hike odds halved in two one-hour bursts on Kalshi and Polymarket, trade-tape analysis finds
- October Fed hike odds halved in two one-hour bursts on Kalshi and Polymarket, trade-tape analysis finds — CleanSky reconstructed second-by-second trade data showing the Kalshi October hike contract fell from 67 to 46 cents in a single hour on September 29, with 310,742 contracts traded. On Polymarket the same outcome fell from 66.5 percent on September 25 to 33.5 percent on September 30, with December odds largely unmoved. (CleanSky)
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