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New York Times analysis finds prediction markets were no more accurate than election forecasts for most of the midterm race, Outside the Beltway reports
- New York Times analysis finds prediction markets were no more accurate than election forecasts for most of the midterm race, Outside the Beltway reports — The analysis found market odds were less confident and frequently less accurate than poll-based forecasts over the three months before the midterms, then performed better in the final days as forecasts and polling became stale. Forecaster Nate Silver said the markets' accuracy was a direct result of work by pollsters and forecasters, whose information bettors mostly relied on. (Outside the Beltway)
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