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New study of about one million contracts finds prediction markets highly calibrated across 12 domains, Marginal Revolution reports
- New study of about one million contracts finds prediction markets highly calibrated across 12 domains, Marginal Revolution reports — Marginal Revolution, summarizing a new PNAS paper published October 23, reports that researchers evaluated approximately one million resolved contracts and questions across Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Metaculus in 12 domains and found forecast probabilities were highly calibrated overall. Events assigned a probability of p percent occurred approximately p percent of the time, with systematic over- and underestimation found in some highly consequential areas. (Marginal Revolution)
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