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NBER study finds no systematic political bias in election prediction market prices, RotoWire reports
- NBER study finds no systematic political bias in election prediction market prices, RotoWire reports — An October 2026 NBER working paper by Eric Zitzewitz analyzed what the author believes is the largest sample of election prediction markets ever assembled, spanning 1880 to 2025 and covering venues including the Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade, PredictIt, Betfair, and Kalshi. The full-sample estimate of partisan bias was essentially zero, and no robustness check showed a statistically significant tilt. (RotoWire)
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