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Longshot bets that lose about 98 percent of the time account for about half of Kalshi and Polymarket activity
- Longshot bets that lose about 98 percent of the time account for about half of Kalshi and Polymarket activity — A Bloomberg analysis cited by PlayUSA found longshot bets seeking returns of 1,000 percent or more have accounted for about half of Kalshi activity since early 2025 and 52 percent of Polymarket activity over the past 21 months. The analysis found Yes-side longshot bets returned average losses of 15 percent on Kalshi and 27 percent on Polymarket. (PlayUSA)
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