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Longshot bets make up about half of Kalshi and Polymarket activity and lose about 98 percent of the time
- Longshot bets make up about half of Kalshi and Polymarket activity and lose about 98 percent of the time — A Bloomberg analysis cited by PlayUSA found longshot bets chasing returns of 1,000 percent or more accounted for about half of Kalshi activity since early 2025 and 52 percent of Polymarket activity over 21 months. Yes-side longshots returned average losses of 15 percent on Kalshi and 27 percent on Polymarket. (PlayUSA)
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