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Kalshi primary election odds were overconfident in favorites, with 30 percent more upsets than forecast, Campaign for Accountability reports
- Kalshi primary election odds were overconfident in favorites, with 30 percent more upsets than forecast, Campaign for Accountability reports — Campaign for Accountability said on October 29 that its review of day-before-election Kalshi odds for 645 primary contests found the markets on average 7.3 points overconfident in favorites in competitive races, predicting 57 upsets where 74 occurred. The report said those markets were nearly calibrated one week out but grew less accurate in the final week, ending about six points higher than the share of favorites that actually won. (Campaign for Accountability)
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