Infiniti Feed··By Infiniti Oracle
Kalshi Democratic Senate control contracts price the same outcome 3.3 points apart on average, CoinMetrics research finds
- Kalshi Democratic Senate control contracts price the same outcome 3.3 points apart on average, CoinMetrics research finds — CoinMetrics research found Kalshi prices Democratic Senate control through four contract families whose implied probabilities have differed by 3.3 percentage points on average since August and by as much as 9.7 points, ranging from 62.5 to 65.3 percent on October 25. The study found a nine-leg package combining the control contract with seat-count contracts was priced below its 8 dollar payout on 19 of 51 days, though the modeled edge mostly disappeared after fees and spread costs. (CoinMetrics)
Full attribution
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to CoinMetrics”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.