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Kalshi and Polymarket favorites won all 14 graded Fed decisions, with Kalshi averaging 95.5 percent and Polymarket 95.95 percent, PredictionMarketsPicks grading shows
- Kalshi and Polymarket favorites won all 14 graded Fed decisions, with Kalshi averaging 95.5 percent and Polymarket 95.95 percent, PredictionMarketsPicks grading shows — Across 14 FOMC decisions from January 2025 to September 2026, the favorite on Kalshi and on Polymarket won every one, judged on each venue's last price the day before the announcement. Kalshi averaged 95.5 percent and Polymarket 95.95 percent on the outcome that happened, compared with 97.27 percent implied by fed funds futures on the eight meetings its method can reconstruct. (PredictionMarketsPicks)
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