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Kalshi and Polymarket converge on an October Fed hold at 86.5 percent, with the futures spread narrowed to 2.5 points
- Kalshi and Polymarket converge on an October Fed hold at 86.5 percent, with the futures spread narrowed to 2.5 points — PredictionMarketsPicks' Fed tracker, updated October 18 at 3:30 AM ET, shows Kalshi and Polymarket both pricing a hold at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting at 86.5 percent and a 25 basis point hike at 13.5 percent, against 84 percent hold and 16 percent hike implied by CME fed funds futures. The hold price on Kalshi has risen from 70.5 percent on October 15, and the widest gap between the three venues is now 2.5 points. (PredictionMarketsPicks)
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