Four Days Out: The House Looks Settled, the Senate Does Not

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and with four days left the prediction markets have split Congress in two. The House looks close to settled: Polymarket prices Democrats at 94% to win it and Kalshi at 92%. The Senate is the real contest, priced at 69% for Democrats on both exchanges.

The combinations tell the same story. Kalshi prices a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 67.5%, a Democratic House with a Republican Senate at 26.5%, and a Republican sweep at just 7.3%. Traders have put $21 million into election markets in the past 24 hours alone, according to DeFi Rate.

The Senate map runs through a handful of races. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, and DeFi Rate notes the 51st seat runs through Maine, where Democrat Troy Jackson is priced at 68%. The biggest move of the last seven days is Kansas, where the Democrat's chance jumped from 40% to 53%.

Texas moved the same way: the Democrat rose from 65% to 72% over the week, while in Alaska the Democrat eased from 76% to 69%. The single most likely Senate outcome is Democrats holding more than 52 seats, at 35%, and the most likely House outcome is 230 to 233 Democratic seats, at 16%.

The polls point the same way, just less far. RealClearPolling's generic congressional ballot average has Democrats ahead 51.4% to 43.2%, an 8.2-point lead. The markets have gone further than the polls. Whether that gap is foresight or enthusiasm is what Tuesday settles.

#infiniti #infinitimarkets #predictionmarkets #Midterms2026 #Kalshi #Polymarket
web: Infiniti.w3ai.io
Infiniti Briefing
https://infiniti.w3ai.io/infiniti-feed