Fifteen Percent Is the Favorite: The Super Bowl Market Has No Front-Runner
Super Bowl LXI is on February 14, 2027 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, and the prediction markets cannot find a favorite. The San Francisco 49ers lead the board at about 15% on DeFi Rate's cross-exchange average — 15.5 cents on Kalshi, 14.1 cents on Polymarket. A 15% favorite means the market thinks someone else wins about 85% of the time.
The chase pack is tight. The Buffalo Bills sit second at 12% — 11.5 cents on Kalshi, 12 cents on Polymarket — and the Kansas City Chiefs are third at 9.7%, priced higher on Polymarket (10.1 cents) than on Kalshi (9.5 cents). The Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears are next at about 7.5% each, with the Los Angeles Rams at 6.5%.
The week's movers show how unsettled it is. Seattle climbed from 6% to 8% on Kalshi's daily close and Cincinnati from 4% to 6%, the two biggest gains of the last seven days. Houston fell from 4% to 2%. At the top, San Francisco slipped 1 point on the week while Buffalo gained 1 point — first and second are converging, not separating.
The money is deep even without a leader. On Kalshi alone, the Rams' Super Bowl contract has traded 13,065,216 contracts lifetime, the most of any top-eight team, ahead of San Francisco at 12,353,296 and Chicago at 11,111,112. Polymarket's 32 yes prices sum to 103.4%, a reminder that each team's contract trades in its own order book.
The same disagreement runs through the MVP market: Josh Allen leads at 30.5% on Kalshi and 32% on Polymarket, but on Joe Burrow the books do not even overlap — Kalshi prices him at 17.5% for MVP, Polymarket at 15%, with Kalshi's best bid above Polymarket's best ask. Two crowds, two answers, and a long season left to settle both.
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