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Federal Reserve research finds Kalshi day-before FOMC forecasts outperformed fed funds futures, Mingooland reports
- Federal Reserve research finds Kalshi day-before FOMC forecasts outperformed fed funds futures, Mingooland reports — A Federal Reserve Board working paper by Diercks, Katz and Wright found Kalshi median and mode forecasts for the federal funds rate had a perfect forecast record on the day before FOMC meetings and significantly outperformed fed funds futures at that horizon. The paper also found Kalshi forecasts were significantly more accurate than the Bloomberg consensus for headline CPI inflation. (Mingooland)
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