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Crane and Strumpf study finds Kalshi 2024 election prices beat poll-based forecasts, RotoWire reports
- Crane and Strumpf study finds Kalshi 2024 election prices beat poll-based forecasts, RotoWire reports — A study by Rutgers statistician Harry Crane and Wake Forest economist Koleman Strumpf, released exclusively to RotoWire, found Kalshi's 2024 election prices beat every poll-based forecast in the national race, all seven battleground states and 19 Senate races. The study, using Kalshi, PredictIt and historical New York betting market data, found Kalshi's 2024 traders were 86 percent male and half under 30, but that high-volume traders whose activity did not track a political position drove price accuracy. (RotoWire)
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