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Contract on a December Fed hike of 25 basis points priced at 81 percent on Kalshi and 78 percent on Polymarket, Rivo reports
- Contract on a December Fed hike of 25 basis points priced at 81 percent on Kalshi and 78 percent on Polymarket, Rivo reports — Rivo, updated at 4:44 PM ET on November 4, prices a 25 basis point Fed hike at the December 2026 meeting at 81 percent on Kalshi and 78 percent on Polymarket, with no change at 21 percent and 22 percent and a 25 basis point cut at 1 percent on both. Rivo also prices Bitcoin closing 2026 in the 80,000 to 85,000 dollar band at 18 percent on Kalshi, up 3 points in 24 hours. (Rivo)
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