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Bitcoin election premium falls sharply ahead of midterms with Kalshi Senate odds showing near-zero correlation to Bitcoin returns, DigitalToday reports
- Bitcoin election premium falls sharply ahead of midterms with Kalshi Senate odds showing near-zero correlation to Bitcoin returns, DigitalToday reports — Block Scholes analysis found the Bitcoin options election premium at 2.8 and 0.1 percentage points for the windows around election day, far below 14.4 and 10.8 points in 2024, with implied volatility for the 7 to 14 day window at 37.8 percent. The analysis also found an average correlation of -0.02 between changes in Kalshi's probability of Democrats taking the Senate and Bitcoin daily returns through October 26. (DigitalToday)
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