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Backtest of a forecast-based model against Kalshi temperature markets finds the market won
- Backtest of a forecast-based model against Kalshi temperature markets finds the market won — A backtest over 60 summer days found a public forecast model using a normal error distribution did not beat the day-before Kalshi temperature market price, with the tested strategies losing across price bands. The author notes the fattest pricing gaps sat in sub-10-cent tail brackets, where the normal assumption under-priced outcomes most. (dev.to)
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