96 Percent to 27: The Flip Is Complete
Two years ago Polymarket was the prediction market. It held about 95 percent of the market in September 2024 and 96 percent at its peak. That era is over. Its share has fallen to 27 percent, and Kalshi now trades nearly three times its volume.
October made the gap concrete. Kalshi logged roughly $65 billion for the month, about 10 percent above September. Polymarket US recorded $10 billion, up about 15 percent. Among U.S.-regulated platforms Kalshi held around 83 percent, Polymarket US sat at 12 to 15 percent, and Polymarket Global fell to single digits.
The money still on the table tells the same story. Kalshi carried about $2.05 billion in open interest in October, against $384 million at Polymarket US. Across all venues DeFi Rate counted $123.4 billion traded in 30 days, with Kalshi handling 76 percent of it and $4.5 billion changing hands in the last 24 hours alone.
The drivers were not luck. Kalshi chose CFTC regulation, distribution through Robinhood and Coinbase, and breadth into sports and parlay-style contracts. Polymarket US is growing faster in percentage terms, but on a $10 billion base against $65 billion, the absolute gap is still widening heading into the midterms.
Sources: CryptoBriefing, DeFi Rate, The Block
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