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Historical research finds prediction markets have overstated the challenging party's sweep odds at this point in the last five midterms, ZeroHedge reports
- Historical research finds prediction markets have overstated the challenging party's sweep odds at this point in the last five midterms, ZeroHedge reports — ZeroHedge reports Goldman Sachs told clients the Democratic House looks priced as done, with Polymarket at 96 percent, leaving the Senate as the only real source of election night surprise. It cites research by Phillips finding markets tended to overstate sweep odds in the five previous midterms back to 2002, and notes an ACA beneficiaries basket tracked Kalshi sweep odds almost tick for tick since summer until diverging in the last two weeks. (ZeroHedge)
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