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Study of 358,236 resolved markets finds favourites won 76.9 percent of the time, with Polymarket and Kalshi about equally accurate, PredictDesks reports
- Study of 358,236 resolved markets finds favourites won 76.9 percent of the time, with Polymarket and Kalshi about equally accurate, PredictDesks reports — PredictDesks reports its study of 358,236 resolved markets, 333,464 on Polymarket and 24,772 on Kalshi, found the favourite won 76.9 percent of the time across all markets and 92.8 percent a day out on long-running markets. Weighted to the same mix of topics, the two platforms' Brier scores were nearly identical at 0.150 for Polymarket and 0.147 for Kalshi, while ladder markets were overconfident, with outcomes priced under 10 cents winning 1.6 times as often as their price implied. (PredictDesks)
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